GLOBAL VIEW: An Analysis of the American Presidential Election
By Ellen Ji
The final round of the United States presidential election has begun. The two candidates, President George W. Bush and his competitor Senator John Kerry, have expressed their positions on many important issues through hundreds of speeches, but especially in the three rounds of debate, which may be decisive to the final result.
Up to now their approval ratings are almost in a statistical tie, with Kerry a few points behind. They displayed a stark contrast in their views on virtually every major issue, so the result will depend on which issues Americans are concerned with the most.
Americans who base their vote on considerations of security and Iraq issues favor President Bush. According to a public-opinion poll done in America, undecided voters--which make up about 6%-9% of the electorate--may be dissatisfied with the US economic situation, but think highly of Bush’s policy of dealing with terrorism and the Iraq issue. They hope to elect a president with the ability to maintain the country’s security and tackle the Iraq issue properly.
On this point, Mr. Bush may be more trustful. The Bush administration always sticks to its anti-terrorism policy firmly. President Bush will order the army to garrison in Iraq, training the Iraqi army and police and press on with the Iraqi election next year. John Kerry who, on the contrary, has not provided any effective way to solve the problem has criticized the policy. Mr. Kerry suggested the American army evacuate from Iraq in the next four years, which is believed unlikely to happen.
On the other hand, Mr. Kerry will gain more support by economy-concerned Americans. He has linked jobs and health care as the centerpiece of his economic package. He has promised to cut the federal budget deficit in half--after Bush took office, a $5.6 trillion surplus was turned into deficits--and to create 10 million jobs in four years, aggressive targets. This plan is very tempting in some states, especially Ohio, where nearly 240,000 job opportunities have been lost since President Bush has been in power.
Kerry is also proposing tax credits to help small and mid-sized businesses pay for employee health care, and would pay for his proposals by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans earning more than $200,000 a year, reversing Bush-era reductions. It seems that some lapses of Bush’s economic policy have had a bad effect on Bush’s approval rate, which could give Kerry a chance to defeat Bush.
The two candidates are campaigning hard to capture enough support from the undecided voters to break their virtual tie in these last few days. The world anxiously awaits November 2nd and the final decision of the American people.
The final round of the United States presidential election has begun. The two candidates, President George W. Bush and his competitor Senator John Kerry, have expressed their positions on many important issues through hundreds of speeches, but especially in the three rounds of debate, which may be decisive to the final result.
Up to now their approval ratings are almost in a statistical tie, with Kerry a few points behind. They displayed a stark contrast in their views on virtually every major issue, so the result will depend on which issues Americans are concerned with the most.
Americans who base their vote on considerations of security and Iraq issues favor President Bush. According to a public-opinion poll done in America, undecided voters--which make up about 6%-9% of the electorate--may be dissatisfied with the US economic situation, but think highly of Bush’s policy of dealing with terrorism and the Iraq issue. They hope to elect a president with the ability to maintain the country’s security and tackle the Iraq issue properly.
On this point, Mr. Bush may be more trustful. The Bush administration always sticks to its anti-terrorism policy firmly. President Bush will order the army to garrison in Iraq, training the Iraqi army and police and press on with the Iraqi election next year. John Kerry who, on the contrary, has not provided any effective way to solve the problem has criticized the policy. Mr. Kerry suggested the American army evacuate from Iraq in the next four years, which is believed unlikely to happen.
On the other hand, Mr. Kerry will gain more support by economy-concerned Americans. He has linked jobs and health care as the centerpiece of his economic package. He has promised to cut the federal budget deficit in half--after Bush took office, a $5.6 trillion surplus was turned into deficits--and to create 10 million jobs in four years, aggressive targets. This plan is very tempting in some states, especially Ohio, where nearly 240,000 job opportunities have been lost since President Bush has been in power.
Kerry is also proposing tax credits to help small and mid-sized businesses pay for employee health care, and would pay for his proposals by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans earning more than $200,000 a year, reversing Bush-era reductions. It seems that some lapses of Bush’s economic policy have had a bad effect on Bush’s approval rate, which could give Kerry a chance to defeat Bush.
The two candidates are campaigning hard to capture enough support from the undecided voters to break their virtual tie in these last few days. The world anxiously awaits November 2nd and the final decision of the American people.
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