CHINA, SOCIETY, Analysis: Facing the Population Problem
By Julia Zhu
To China--a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion--population is a hot, controversial, heavy topic. Peering into the present population situation of my country, we are worried as well as happy. Of course, it is exciting and encouraging to find that, thanks to the birth planning policy and the strict application of the one-child rule, China has brought its population under control with unprecedented success and speed.
It is also an acknowledged miracle that with only 7% of the world's farm land, we are able to feed 22% of the world's population. But in spite of these achievements, new and even more fierce problems exposed themselves during the population control process and are now waiting to be settled rationally in the new century.
According to the State Family Planning Commission, the population of China will continue to increase by more than 10 million a year over the next ten-plus years and is likely to reach the peak of 1.6 billion in the middle of the 21st century. Meanwhile, the labor and aging population will reach their peak in this period, too.
The birth-control policy not only slows down the rate of population quantity but it also has the same effect over the quality: in the city where the population quality is high, the birth rate is plunging; in the countryside, where people are less educated, it is just the opposite. The quantity problem has slipped into the quality one. In addition, the "floating" population and too many extra laborers are a double-scale challenge: difficult supervision + high pressure of employment.
According to the statistics, in 2000, the number of laborers between the age of 15 and 64 was more than 800 million, covering 70.15% of the gross population. It is estimated that in 2020, this number will reach 940 million, accounting for 65% of the population.
Faced with such a harsh reality, the government is now attempting both to continue to limit population quantity and to further improve population quality. This is easier said than done. Poverty, insecurity, and ignorance cause high growth rates, therefore to promote education on the scope of the problem to the whole nation is quite urgent now.
As we can see, coercive measures can have an impact. But social change that improves conditions of life, levels of education, economic security, and freedom of choice for women would be more humane and essential. In my opinion, it shall be very effective if we take this path, what we can call the "Kerala (a state of India) model" of controlling population. It, like China and unlike the rest of India, has high levels of basic education, health care, female workforce participation, and so on. To reach this stage is never an easy task and we may run into many difficulties in the process, but steps should be made before we come to the final, unfortunate conclusion.
To China--a country with a population of more than 1.3 billion--population is a hot, controversial, heavy topic. Peering into the present population situation of my country, we are worried as well as happy. Of course, it is exciting and encouraging to find that, thanks to the birth planning policy and the strict application of the one-child rule, China has brought its population under control with unprecedented success and speed.
It is also an acknowledged miracle that with only 7% of the world's farm land, we are able to feed 22% of the world's population. But in spite of these achievements, new and even more fierce problems exposed themselves during the population control process and are now waiting to be settled rationally in the new century.
According to the State Family Planning Commission, the population of China will continue to increase by more than 10 million a year over the next ten-plus years and is likely to reach the peak of 1.6 billion in the middle of the 21st century. Meanwhile, the labor and aging population will reach their peak in this period, too.
The birth-control policy not only slows down the rate of population quantity but it also has the same effect over the quality: in the city where the population quality is high, the birth rate is plunging; in the countryside, where people are less educated, it is just the opposite. The quantity problem has slipped into the quality one. In addition, the "floating" population and too many extra laborers are a double-scale challenge: difficult supervision + high pressure of employment.
According to the statistics, in 2000, the number of laborers between the age of 15 and 64 was more than 800 million, covering 70.15% of the gross population. It is estimated that in 2020, this number will reach 940 million, accounting for 65% of the population.
Faced with such a harsh reality, the government is now attempting both to continue to limit population quantity and to further improve population quality. This is easier said than done. Poverty, insecurity, and ignorance cause high growth rates, therefore to promote education on the scope of the problem to the whole nation is quite urgent now.
As we can see, coercive measures can have an impact. But social change that improves conditions of life, levels of education, economic security, and freedom of choice for women would be more humane and essential. In my opinion, it shall be very effective if we take this path, what we can call the "Kerala (a state of India) model" of controlling population. It, like China and unlike the rest of India, has high levels of basic education, health care, female workforce participation, and so on. To reach this stage is never an easy task and we may run into many difficulties in the process, but steps should be made before we come to the final, unfortunate conclusion.
1 Comments:
At 1:21 AM , Anonymous said...
Why don't you comment on the future problems of the youth being responsible to take care of more old people because the family only has one child?
When a boy marries a girl from single child families then that couple must take care of 4 parents.
That is already a worry to many young people today.
Are you a student reporter or a worker for the state population control office? No balance at all. Just blah, blah, blah everthing is running smoothly according to the all knowing and all wise state. Talk about the bird flu.
Post a Comment
<< Home